<$BlogRSDURL$>

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

It happened and happened and happened one evening
Old Saying: Lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice.

Layman's Explanation: The chances of an unlikely event repeating itself is even more unlikely.

For the geeks: If p be the probability of an event such that p<<1 then the chances of p repeating itself is p*p and p*p << p.

Why am I saying all this??? THEY HAVE MISPLACED MY BAGGAGE FOR THE THIRD TIME IN THREE YEARS!!!!!

Comments:
A classic case of observer selection effect. A million low probability events occur around you every day. However it is the one event that occurs thrice that you chose to remark upon and restrict your sample space to.

of course, most people (including you im sure) would immediately identify the fallacy above, but there are some related issues like anthropic bias and self-sampling assumptions that are more subtle. This is a really good article about them:

http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer.html

~ditch
 
yeah ditch - trust you to bring a body of mathematics to my state of distress :) if it interests your intellectual prowess any more, I left out one parameter - the small sample space itself i.e. both loosing one's baggage and loosing it three times are low probability events - add to that the fact that I would have traveled a sum total of 12-15 times in which this happened it becomes even more interesting - I actually have a good mind to sit and solve for the probability of this event (starting from the fact that the prob of "ever" loosing a baggage is p) but shall let the great mind of ditch do it - btw - when are you getting back?
 
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?